ENERGY MODELING AND
THE IESS, 2047
In view of the rising energy demand and sticky import dependency, the need for long term energy planning for India remains as strong as ever. It has also become important to look at the distant medium term, i.e., the next 3-4 decades, looking beyond 2031-32 the terminal year of the Integrated Energy Policy projections. While doing so, the Indian Government is often provided long-term energy demand/supply numbers estimated by international agencies. Several of them including EIA, IEA as well as corporates like Shell, BP, Mckinsey, etc., have presented India’s energy demand-supply scenarios in the years 2035-2050. Projecting India’s energy demand/supply is particularly driven by the fact that with opening up of the economy, and rising economic development, India has become an important international player in the global energy scene. It is expected that this exercise done by experts in India, with inter-Ministerial consultation will aid and improve the international analyses.
While these projections are considered by the Indian energy planners, we are conscious that these exercises are driven by the assumptions and drivers of the sponsoring agencies. Therefore, the Indian Government has to develop Indian capabilities for estimating/analyzing the future energy scenarios for the country, keeping national interests above all in mind. As energy sector decisions have huge cost implications, the energy demand/supply projections ought to have a high degree of credibility, which an in-house exercise in the Government could best deliver. Keeping the above in mind, the Niti Aayog decided to undertake an energy scenario building exercise early in the year 2013.
The Niti Aayog received presentations from a number of Indian and international organizations, to consider proposals as to how could local capabilities be developed in medium term energy modeling. It also sought the views of these expert agencies on related issues viz., whether the Government ought to support energy modeling in one institution or more, and on the merits of the energy modeling versus scenario building. On the basis of this consultation exercise, the Niti Aayog decided, that there is scope both for energy modeling and scenario building in economic planning. However, energy modeling requires a high order expertise and a sustained effort on a long term basis, both for delivery and maintenance. At the same time, the Niti Aayog reached a decision that a scenario building exercise could be undertaken in-house in the Commission as had been done in a number of countries including UK, China, Belgium, while it was underway in several other ones. In this regard, the UK Energy Pathways Calculator, 2050 was adopted as a good template for the Niti Aayog to adopt. Since it was an open source tool, which placed all the data in the public realm, and allows the freedom to change the assumptions as per the users’ choice, and was also easy to operate, it was approved for development as adapted to our local need.
The India Energy security Scenarios, 2047 has been developed on an Excel Format with a Web Tool which allows graphic representations of the chosen outputs of the energy demand and supply levels leading up to the chosen terminal year. This exercise has adapted the UK 2050 Calculator developed by Department of Energy & Climate Change. While for UK, the chosen driver is GHG emissions, in the Indian case, energy security has been adopted as the major outcome of the exercise. However, the tool is amenable to adoption of other outputs as well, which can be further developed over the years. Consequently, the present version of the tool would integrate energy security, land, and Carbon Dioxide emissions as its output, while the future versions could incorporate other implications like water, labour, energy intensity, etc. as outputs. The instant Version 2.0 is adding cost implications, GHG and Industrial process emissions, sensitivity of energy demand to GDP scenarios and several new demand/supply sectors.
The tool has been built with the help of knowledge partners. The process included getting their views on broad estimates, of the likely prices of different technologies/fuels in the long term. They have in turn sourced this information from multiple agencies, including the industry. Along with the present day prices (in many cases of 2012), the tool provides their assumptions of reduction in the cost of technologies, as well as a point estimate between the high cost and the likely lower cost in the time horizon, i.e., 2047. It also provides land use estimates, emissions levels and derives example pathways ranging from the least efficient scenario to the most efficient.