Bioenergy

BIOMASS RESIDUE PRODUCTION AND END-USAGE

Bioenergy The components that presently make up bioenergy production in India are agricultural residue, forest residue, sugarcane molasses-based bioethanol, Jatropha biodiesel and biogas. 99% of the present bioenergy production relates to agriculture residue and forestry residue (214 and 150 million tons/year). Bioenergy production is already estimated to be about 1843 TWhr/year (25% of the total energy consumption of India). A large part of biomass residue is used for cooking. Part of agri-residue (about 16 million tons/yr) is used for power generation (2.5 GW). The agri-residue that accounts for bioenergy is 67% of the residue that is not used as animal fodder and the other 33% is used for other applications. This split is maintained in future as well for all the four levels. The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase from 0 to 0.75% (annual) across the four levels. As for forestry residue, 180-200 million tons/year is rated to be the sustainable limit for recovery from forests and it is extended across the four levels accordingly.

Level 1

The split of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking decreases from 46% to 25% by 2027 and to 3% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation is increased from the present 5% to 16%. This relates to power generation increasing from the present 2.5 GW to 7.8 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially from 2027 and the split reaches 6% by 2047. This leaves the proportion for other miscellaneous energy applications to change from the present 16% to 42% by 2047.

Level 2

0.25% annual growth rate is considered for the agri-residue productivity. The forestry residue is projected to increase to 174 million tons/year. The split of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking decreases to 18% by 2027 and to 3% by 2047. The agri-residue split for power generation is increased from the present 5% to 27. This results in power generation increasing from the present 2.5 GW to 20 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially from 2022 and the split reaches 12% by 2047. This leaves the other energy applications split to increase to 25% by 2047.

Level 3

The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.5%. The forestry residue is projected to increase to 190 million tons/year. The split of non-fodder agriresidue for household cooking decreases to 12% by 2027 and to 2% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation is increased from the present 5% to 43. This relates to power generation increasing from the present 2.5 GW to 42 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially from 2020 and the split reaches 22% by 2047. This leaves the other energy applications split to increase to 30% by 2027 and decrease to 0.5% by 2047.

Level 4

The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.75%. The forestry residue is projected to increase to 200 million tons/year. The split of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking decreases to 8% by 2027 and to 1% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation increases from the present 5% to a maximum of 45 by 2032-37 and decreases to 36% by 2047 as the conversion to liquid fuels become more pronounced. Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially from 2017 and the split increases to 30% by 2047.

ADVANCED BIOFUELS

Advanced biofuels (beyond first and second generation) have been considered as they present a large scope for use as transportation fuel. Microalgal biofuels and macroalgal (seaweed) fuels (offshore) have been considered under this scenario. They qualify theoretically by resource assessment to cater to the magnitude of India’s transportation fuel needs. These are still in the R&D stage and are considered to be in a relatively earlier stage of development compared to lignocellulosic biofuels. Sea water has been considered to be the appropriate water source. One technology (microalgae) has been considered to illustrate the extensive production, while the other (macroalgae) has been projected for representative purpose with lower numbers. The numbers may be used interchangeably depending on whichever technology (or combination thereof) matures better. This analysis captures future scenarios of this emerging technology.

Level 1

The microalgal technology sees barely any development with commercial production reaching only 5,000 tons/year by 2047. An area productivity of 25 g/m2/day and lipid content of 18% has been considered. The cultivation land area extends to a mere 500 ha by 2047. Offshore macroalgae also sees only negligible development with fuel production reaching just 2,000 tons/year by 2047.

Level 2

The microalgal fuel development is still slow with commercial production starting at a lowly 1,000 tons/year by 2027. An area productivity of 35 g/m2 /day has been considered. Lipid content is taken to be 23%. The cultivation land area extends to 5,000 ha by 2047. This relates to microalgal biofuel production of 0.09 mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore macroalgae is modeled to reach a productivity of 35 g/m2 /day by 2047 and result in a modest 0.05 mtoe/year liquid fuel production by 2047.

Level 3

The microalgal fuel development is assumed to be promising with commercial production starting from 2022 at 40,000 tons/year. An area productivity of 55 g/m2 /day has beenconsidered and Lipid content envisaged at 28%. Microalgae cultivation extends to a land area of 0.35 Mha (2047). This relates to microalgal biofuel production of 12 mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore macroalgae also picks up with commercial production starting from 2022. 55 g/m2/day productivity has been considered with energy yield of fuel conversion process increase to 52% by 2047 from the present 20% as in lignocellulosic liquid fuels. Liquid fuel production from macroalgae reaches 0.7 mtoe/year by 2047.

Level 4

In Level 4, a highly optimistic scenario is assumed, wherein microalgal fuel is envisioned to become commercially viable starting from 2020. Areal productivity is considered to be 75 g/m2/day with lipid content of 38%. Microalgae cultivation extends to an area of 0.65 Mha by 2047 and biofuel production progresses appreciably to 41.3 mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore macroalgae becomes commercially viable by 2022. An area productivity of 75 g/m2 /day has been considered. The energy yield of fuel conversion process is projected to increase to 60% by 2047. This relates to a macroalgal fuel production of 2.2 mtoe/year by 2047.

FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION BIOFUELS

Government of India initiated mandated biofuel blending programs from 2003 under the National Biofuels Mission. These programs specify blending of biofuels (5%, 10%, 20%) with fossil fuels in a time bound and phased manner across India. The ‘National Policy on Biofuels’ was released in 2009. Feed stocks identified are molasses for production of ethanol and tree-borne non-edible oilseed crops like Jatropha and Pongamia for production of biodiesel from marginal lands. To increase biofuel production that has larger scope, lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and biodiesel from extensive Jatropha/Pongamia cultivation form wastelands are being pursued.

Level 1

Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 4.5 Mha. Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are projected to increase gradually to 10,000 ha (by 2047). As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to increase to 0.45 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production to 0.25 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue begin to be commercially ready from 2027. The fuel production reaches 2.9 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation biofuel production reaches 3.5 mtoe/year by 2047.

Level 2

Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5 Mha. Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are projected to increase gradually to 15,000 ha. As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to increase to 1.7 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production to 1.7 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and wasteland biomass begin to be commercially ready from 2022. The fuel production reaches 8.3 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation biofuel production reaches 10.6 mtoe/year by 2047.

Level 3

Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.2 Mha. Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are projected to increase gradually to 20,000 ha (by 2047). Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches 0.9 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to increase to 3.5 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production to 4.9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue residue and wasteland biomass begin to be commercially ready from 2020. The fuel production reaches 21.3 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation biofuel production reaches 27 mtoe/year by 2047.

Level 4

Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.5 Mha. Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are projected to increase gradually to 25,000 ha (by 2047). Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches 1.26 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to increase to 5.25 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production to 9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and wasteland biomass begin to be commercially ready from 2017. The fuel production reaches 39 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation biofuel production reaches 50 mtoe/year by 2047.

These technologies have been estimated to take varying times (2017-2027) to be commercially ready and follow different rates of development across the four levels. As of now, only sugarcane molasses is used in India for bioethanol production. However as the consumption of sugar in India is expected to increase in future, sugarbeet cultivation is envisaged and its molasses is projected to contribute to ethanol production. Sweet sorghum is also considered as a feedstock for bioethanol.