The India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 (IESS 2047) Version 2.0 also generates the total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (CO2, Methane and Nitrous Oxide) footprints, in addition to only CO2 included in Version 1.0, for the chosen pathways as one of its implications. While energy security is the primary aim of this analysis, however, with increasing concerns about sustainability and climate change and India submitting its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for the first time for discussion in the COP 21 summit, the importance of moving towards an economy which has renewable and clean sources of energy as its mainstay (which contribute to a reduction in the aggregate emissions) is increasingly being deliberated upon.
While several studies have been undertaken to estimate the CO2 emissions of the country in the long term, this Tool alone helps the user to see the cumulative impact of various energy pathways on emissions, by combining different mix of energy efficiency interventions on the Demand side, and fuel mixes on the Supply side, in the medium term.
It may be noted only combustion emissions have been considered for Version 2.0 of the tool, and process emissions have not been included. Additionally, wherever, fossil fuels are being extracted and burnt throughout the value chain of its movement within the system, fugitive and combustion emissions have been calculated at that stage. Hence, emissions have been captured both on the Demand and Supply sides of the tool, as the case may be.
UNDERLYING PHILOSOPHY FOR CALCULATING EMISSIONS?
To calculate the GHG emissions in each sector, the fuel specific energy demand of the sector (for the Level chosen by the user) is multiplied with the corresponding Emission Factor (EF) (Detailed in the following section).
An illustration as to how the aggregate CO2 emissions are calculated in the tool:
In the Industry sector, the solid hydrocarbon energy demand (coal demand) is multiplied by the coal emission factor (1.614 tons of CO2 per ton of coal) to calculate the solid hydrocarbon emissions. Similarly, in the Transport sector, the petroleum products such as diesel, petrol, aviation fuel etc. are multiplied with the corresponding emission factor (3.102 tons of CO2 per ton of petroleum product) to calculate the liquid hydrocarbon emissions. Similar calculations are performed for gaseous hydrocarbon emissions. Zero emissions are considered for electric vehicles.
The aforementioned method has been followed for calculation of the aggregate Methane and Nitrous Oxide emissions.
The algorithm in the IESS, 2047 calculates and adds the GHG emissions from different fuels used in the specified sector, to calculate the total emissions generated by the sector. Similar calculations are carried out for all the sectors.
CH4 and N2O emissions have been estimated using the ratios of emissions of each to the emissions of CO2 implied by figure above in the GHG inventory. This has been done separately for each form of fuel listed above.
Fugitive Emissions: The emission factors of Methane taken for the fossil fuel production sectors are as follows:
Source: Fugitive Methane Emissions from Coal Mining and Handling Activities and Oil and Natural Gas Systems in India, Ministry of Environment and Forests (http://www.moef.nic.in/sites/default/files/A.K_1.pdf) and Estimation of Methane Emission Factors for Indian Oil and Gas Sectors, Petrotech (2010) (http://www.petrotechsociety.org/wp-content/themes/continuum/pdf/20100379-FP.pdf).
Why does electricity supplied to user does not generate any emissions?
Wherever the fuel (coal, petroleum products and natural gas) is burned, emissions are registered. Therefore, when electricity is used in the demand sectors, no emissions have been considered at the end of the Demand sector, as it has already been accounted in the power generation sector of the supply side. This approach is followed to avoid any double counting the emissions. For example, in lighting and appliances sector, only emissions due to kerosene have been considered on the Demand side. This is because the appliances run on electricity, and for the amount of electricity generated, emissions have been calculated in the supply sectors.
How have bio-energy emissions been considered?
For the purpose of the IESS, 2047, bio-energy has been considered a carbon neutral sector, that is, emission credits earned by growing bio-energy are neutralized by the combustion of bio energy in the end use sectors: Cooking, Bio-fuels, and Electricity Generation. This has been done to ensure consistency in the calculator, as bio-energy can be substituted for Fossil Energy at almost all the end use applications, and the calculators accumulates the stock of fossil fuels and bio energy available for a particular pathway. The stock is then allocated to the demand sectors and the deficit thus realized is met by fossil fuel imports.
What is the value added by this exercise?
The emissions calculation gives a broad idea of the range of GHG emissions within which India may find itself under different energy demand and supply mixes. The numbers generated by the IESS, 2047 are not the likely emissions, and there being no NITI Aayog pathway, this exercise does not estimate the emissions for India. It merely indicates by what factor the emissions come down by curbing energy demand, and varying the fuel mix. This is a very helpful tool for the interested user who may wish to delve deeper into the impact on emissions by, let us say, improved technology in the manufacturing sector, ramping up of Electric vehicles, enhanced efficiency of our thermal plants or higher Renewable Energy supply. It also gives a broad overview of the level of emission by different demand sectors, as also the contribution of different fuels.
HOW TO CALCULATE EMISSION FOR YOUR CHOSEN PATHWAY?
Step 1 :Choose your pathway by selecting levels for all demand and supply
Step 2: Click on the Emissions tab of the webtool
Step 3 : The webtool displays the total emissions, emissions per capita and sector emissions.