Level and Components
UNDERSTANDING THE LEVELS
The 'Least Effort' scenario (Level 1) is of poor domestic output of energy, and is likely to follow the past trends, should there not be any major policy announcement, or any other trigger in generating energy supply. On the other hand, the 'Heroic Effort' scenario of Level 4 gives us the physical limits, which would guide the growth of that particular energy supply up to the year 2047.
The 'Least Effort’ scenario in the demand sector (Level 1) offers projections assuming past trends continue.
Level 2, the ‘Determined Effort’ scenario describes the level of effort which is deemed most achievable by the implementation of current policies and programmes of the government.
Level 3, the ‘Aggressive Effort’ scenario describes the level of effort needing significant change which is hard but deliverable.
The 'Heroic Effort' scenario, (Level 4) indicates heightened efficiency numbers, leading up to the physically best attainable in due course.
A-E are the range of options where one alternative is not necessarily more aggressive than the other. They are referred to technology choices for the sector.
THE COMPONENTS OF THE IESS,2047:
The tool is backed up by detailed Excel Sheets for all sectors - passenger transport demand, present mix of different transport modes, solar PV installed capacity, CUF of solar PV, etc. The data for the four Levels has been loaded on the Excel Sheet on five yearly intervals basis up to 2047. This data has been obtained from a variety of public sources. Historical data has been sourced from published documents, while the projections up to 2047, have been made by different expert agencies, keeping in mind likely scenarios.
However, these data sets are not purported by the NITI Aayog to be a source of authentic Government data. Although, greatest attention has been given to using both historical and future data sets from Government sources, however, the IESS, 2047 is not intended to be a data base of energy related sectors of India.
The data sources in all the projections have been referenced to enhance the credibility of the scenario building exercise. Therefore, the users are advised to use the data in the tool only as an input to decision making, and not as an energy data base.
The open-source 2047 excel calculator allows experts to understand the full impact of their choices, take a look at the data and to change the same and assumptions, if they so desire.
The concise one pager documents accessible through the webtool (by clicking on the line items) and also on the website by clicking on the respective sectors in the drop down menu, allow the user to get a glimpse of the trajectories of each sector in one quick view.
The detailed documentation for each sector present the sectorial background, the assumptions behind each sector, the methodology followed to construct the same and additional sector related information.
The tool also comprises of a webtool which is the main interface between the user and the detailed excel model.One can choose pathways on the web interface and the same draws from the excel spreadsheet at the backend to generate the results and implications of the chosen pathway.