What is India Energy
Security Scenarios 2047?
UNDERSTANDING INDIA ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS, 2047
The IESS, 2047 has been developed expressly as an energy scenario building tool. The guiding ambition of this is to develop energy pathways leading up to the year 2047, comprising of likely energy demand and supply scenarios. The tool has been so developed, that it can create hundreds of scenarios with different combinations of levels/efficiencies of energy demand and supply sectors. Since the Excel model in the IESS, 2047 has the capability to aggregate both the energy demand and supply choices of the user, it is a handy tool to suggest measures to shift the energy pattern in such a way, that the country’s energy security considerations are advanced.
The IESS, 2047 is also capable of generating information as to what percentage of the total energy supply (as per the pathway chosen by the user), will be met by imports. Hence, while the tool segregates the demand for energy by sectors, and the supply numbers by sources, it also generates energy import numbers by source, and aggregates the same to offer total energy imports under different scenarios. As the scenarios generated for different sectors are linear (either rising or falling, as the case may be), the graphic representation of the data sets is simple and easily understandable even by non-energy experts.
A detailed examination of the tool will reveal how changes in choices of energy demand and supply, yielding different levels of energy import can help a planner to decide the sector(s) in which interventions can be more effective to meet the desired policy objectives. Since the tool also offers fuel-wise data, it is also possible to see as to which demand sectors are to be influenced through suitable policy measures, to curb consumption of such fuels in which India is more import dependent. Hence, it is a handy tool to use, for those interested in understanding the energy security dimensions of the country.
A new feature being added in Version 2.0 is cost information. The cost of different technologies on the Demand side, which have been incorporated in higher Levels (Level 2-4) could bring the energy demand down, but will have a cost implication. The present Version has provided costs in the excel sheet, which generate the cost of migrating to higher (efficient) Levels. In turn, the energy demanded by consuming sectors, as the case maybe of electricity from different sources, or oil or gas etc. will also have a cost, which has been indicated in the excel on Supply side. When a user adopts a pathway (Levels of energy demand for all the demands sectors), the excel generates the additional/reduced costs due to the technology/energy demand in combination with the cost of energy that is chosen from the supply side. However, it may be noted that IESS is not a Cost Calculator, but an energy one. It merely captures the difference in cost of the chosen pathway vis-à-vis the default pathway (All Level 2s). The costs are the ones incurred in using the chosen technology on an annualized basis, totaled up to 2047. However, this should not be assumed as a representation of ‘all’ the costs as it does not take into account infrastructure costs (Metro rail network, bus stands, telecom towers etc). It includes the rail engine/coaches, cars, buses and the solar equipment installed in telecom towers to produce power, wherever relevant. The detailed discussion on Costs clarifies further.
What is IESS 2047 and What it’s NOT!
- The IESS, 2047 does not generate forecasts/estimates. It at best a scenario building exercise, with no claim on the projections being ‘highly probable’ in the future years.
- It does take into account the known/estimated energy resources (potential) of the country, and factors in pessimistic/optimistic outlooks on policy, costs, economic growth and other assumptions. Therefore, this is a useful tool to see the big picture - of worst and the best case scenarios.
- The data relating to implications - energy security, costs, land and CO2 emissions are merely indicative and not firm estimates. Therefore, this is a scenario building exercise and not strictly an energy model.
- It could help the interested user to advocate such approaches, which would propel the economy towards optimistic scenarios, and avoid the pessimistic ones.
EVOLUTION OF THE IESS 2047
Development of sector storylines and trajectories.Aug 12
Commencement of development of Excel ModelSep 20
Stakeholder consultation workshops and outreach ActivitiesNov 08
Webtool Development and inter-ministerial consultationsDec 23
Launch and release of publication of Version 1Aug 12
Consultation on Outreach Plan for IESS Version 1Sep 20
IESS 2047 Industry sector consultationNov 08
Development of IESS 2047 Version 2Dec 23
Cost consultation workshop for IESS 2047 Version 2Feb 18
IESS Outreach Event in BangaluruFeb 26
Presentation of IESS 2047 at RE Integration Conference and Expo, Greater NoidaAug 12
IESS Stakeholder consultation workshop in PuneSep 20
Presentations by Stakeholders on IESS 2047 Version 2Nov 08
Presentation of integrated IESS version 2 to Knowledge PartnersDec 23
Development of new websiteFeb 18
Development of webtoolFeb 26
IESS 2047 Version 2 put up for Call for EvidenceFeb 26
Launch event of IESS 2047 Version 2Aug 12
The IESS, 2047 is definitely an aggregation of all the energy demand and supply numbers under different scenarios, and thus, mimics the future.