India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 Version 2.0 launched on 27th August 2015

Energy is among the most important ingredients in any nation's growth recipe. India recognised this fact early in the process of development and took steps necessary to efficiently deliver energy in its various forms to its businesses and citizens. The state has played an active role in this sector via public sector enterprises in coal, oil, gas and power. The high priority that the present Government accords to this sector is reflected in its announcement early in the term to issue a new National Energy Policy. The NITI Aayog is privileged to have the opportunity to prepare this important document.

During 2013-14, the erstwhile Planning Commission had undertaken a major exercise that led to the creation of the utility India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047 aimed at assessing and predicting India’s energy needs, domestic supplies and imports. The utility was launched in February 2014 and has been behind several detailed exercises undertaken by numerous entities within and outside India. The widespread use of the utility has led the team at the NITI Aayog, the successor institution to the Planning Commission, to refine it in a variety of directions. The result has been the IESS 2047 2.0. The dedication with which the team and its partners in India and abroad have worked to create this greatly enhanced version of the original utility is commendable. Version 2.0 has numerous new features that are described in this document.

As an example, the IESS 2047 2.0 now allows for three GDP growth scenarios of 7.4%, 6.7%, and 5.8% during 2012-47 and offers a range of energy consumption projections. While it is my hope that India would grow even faster than the top rate of 7.4% built into the utility, the responses of energy demand and supply to the GDP growth in different sectors it generates make for a rich analysis of India’s energy future.

The Government has announced ambitious developmental targets in the sectors of housing, rural electrification, renewable energy, assured electricity supply and reduction in oil import dependence among others. The Ministries are now framing schemes and programmes to translate the above targets into reality. These targets have been built into the new version of IESS 2047 2.0 to simulate the associated energy demand, supply and costs under the three growth scenarios. In turn, the scenarios may be useful to the line ministries in guiding future policy. More details of the IESS 2047 2.0 including a series of illustrative results are summarized in the main body of this document.

As we embark upon the exercise to prepare the National Energy Policy at the NITI Aayog, we look forward to using the IESS 2047 2.0 as an important input. The timing of the launch of the utility could not be better from yet another perspective. The 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is due to take place from 30 November to 11 December 2015. In preparation towards this conference, participating countries will submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). In this context, the IESS 2047 2.0 may provide critical inputs into determining India’s INDCs.

Simulations and scenario building are critical aspects of policy making. But such exercises must be continuously refined and improved. As such, at the NITI Aayog, we greatly welcome the inputs from the vast community of researchers and analysts from India and abroad. At the same time, I hope that researchers and analysts will find the IESS 2047 2.0 utility useful for their own work.